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Thursday, February 29, 2024
HomeDairy BlogsU.S. dairy exports rise 7% in September

U.S. dairy exports rise 7% in September


Whey, cheese, lactose and butter continued to guide as U.S. suppliers set a number of September data.

U.S. dairy exports stayed on document tempo in September, posting one other robust month of progress. Export quantity rose 7% (+13,784 MT) on a milk solids equal foundation. Whey (+18%, +8,897 MT), cheese (+5%, +1,719 MT) and lactose (+32%, +10,135 MT) all set new September highs, whereas butter shipments elevated 49% (+1,598 MT) in what could also be one of many final robust months for the fats this yr (extra on that later).

U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP) exports fell for the tenth consecutive month in September (-7%, -4,953 MT), and NFDM/SMP stays one of many few merchandise the place exports are trailing the prior yr. Declines had been pushed by restricted product availability and the continued absence of China, together with a newer pullback in Southeast Asia (SEA).

Whereas China continues to lag in general dairy imports, U.S. whey exports to the nation climbed considerably (+41%, +8,626 MT) in September because of progress in permeate, seemingly pushed by rising pork costs which are incentivizing elevated whey use in hog feed.

Exports to Mexico had been significantly spectacular in September, with NFDM/SMP quantity up 22% (+6,138 MT) and cheese up 11% (+969 MT).

Total, U.S. dairy exports had one other nice month. With milk manufacturing coming again, we count on topline numbers to stay robust by way of the tip of the yr.

Chart1 (2)-Nov-04-2022-11-49-06-3459-AM

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Now, let’s bounce into our two fundamental takeaways. 

Sturdy butter exports, however challenges forward

Regardless of the tight butter market resulting in exceptionally excessive costs, the U.S. continued to develop its butter exports in September. Butter shipments jumped 49% (+1,598 MT) for the month, with robust beneficial properties to Canada (+126%, +1,451 MT), although shipments to Mexico doubled as nicely – albeit from a low baseline (+106%, +164 MT). Each international locations have lagged in milk manufacturing during the last 18 months and have turned extra to the U.S. to assist bridge the hole. Aggressive U.S. butter costs early within the yr inspired the expansion in exports in addition to importers bought forward.

Nonetheless, since mid-year, U.S. butter costs have trended nicely above GDT costs and quickly surpassed European costs to change into the costliest butter of the key exporters on a spot foundation—whilst futures had been extra favorable for exports.

Then, during the last week, U.S. spot costs plummeted. Butter costs on the CME fell 59 cents from $3.20 on Oct. 21 to $2.61 yesterday (Nov. 3). The dramatic value correction seemingly stems from components resembling final week’s chilly storage report, which confirmed a less-than-anticipated draw down in shares and retailers having secured purchases forward of the vacation season.

Globally, EU butter noticed an identical dramatic drop in value, which put it on par with the U.S. However each the EU and the U.S. are nonetheless priced nicely above the GDT (roughly 30% larger).

With U.S. costs missing the low cost they loved for a lot of the final 18 months, we will count on U.S. butter exports to gradual within the ultimate quarter of 2022 and into early 2023. That is very true as New Zealand continues to shift extra milk to butter manufacturing whereas the U.S. and EU proceed to expertise tight provides.

New Zealand butter manufacturing has steadily elevated all year long because the nation’s manufacturing combine has shifted extra milk to the butter/skim stream within the face of decrease WMP demand out of China. New Zealand butter manufacturing was up 5.5% YTD (January-August) in comparison with the U.S. being down 2.2% YTD. That elevated provide in New Zealand will assist maintain New Zealand butter priced beneath the U.S., which creates a further hurdle for U.S. exports to complete out the yr.

Chart3 (2)-Nov-03-2022-08-38-19-4943-PM


Whey exports up double-digits once more

The continued resurgence in U.S. whey shipments that started in earnest in June continues to gasoline general U.S. dairy exports. September marked the fourth straight month of year-over-year double-digit beneficial properties, as quantity elevated 18% to 58,117 MT (+8,897 MT).

Drill down into the subcategories of whey, and the image varies. For instance, whey protein focus (WPC) exported underneath HS code 0404.10 posted the largest rise in September, +49% (+5,051 MT), and has been a serious driver within the turnaround of U.S. whey shipments in 2022. However WPC shipped underneath HS code 3502.20 (what we time period WPC80+) continues to undershoot previous-year efficiency, falling 9% (-492 MT) in September and dropping 8% (-4,100 MT) yr up to now.

The differing trajectories for every HS code may be traced again to China.

China is the No. 1 purchaser of U.S. WPC underneath 0404.10 (accounting for about 45% of U.S. gross sales final yr) and, till lately, was the largest purchaser of U.S. WPC80+ underneath 3502.20 (taking about 50% of U.S. exports in 2021).

U.S. WPC exports to China underneath 0404.10 jumped 154% in September (+5,204 MT) and had been up 33% (+16,627 MT) by way of the primary three quarters of 2022. Not like whey permeate or candy whey, that are closely pushed by the pork market in China, the acquire in WPC is extra curious as Chinese language demand for many different high-value dairy substances has suffered over the previous yr. U.S. shipments of WPC80+ to China underneath 3502.20, for instance, declined 63% (-656 MT) in September and had been down 44% (-5,596 MT) within the first three quarters.

Total, even given the imprecision of some commerce information HS codes, mixed WPC exports from the U.S. underneath each HS codes are rising to China and elsewhere—and is one motive behind U.S. whey export beneficial properties this yr.

Whereas WPC has buoyed general whey shipments since March, over the lengthy haul, U.S. exports of modified whey (largely permeate) carried out even higher—even throughout the downturn in general U.S. whey exports that started in late summer time 2021 and ran by way of February 2022.

Because the begin of 2021, U.S. modified whey exports grew 25% (+70,081 MT). We attribute that long-term progress streak partially to patrons turning to permeate as an inexpensive various to candy whey as candy whey costs spiked and better pork costs incentivized elevated utilization of dairy substances by hog producers to spice up velocity to market. Over the identical 21-month interval that changed whey gross sales jumped 25%, U.S. gross sales of dry whey (predominantly candy whey) had been flat.

With U.S. candy whey costs coming down, we count on to begin seeing extra balanced progress. That will have already began. 12 months-over-year U.S. shipments of modified whey grew 1% (+206 MT) in September whereas U.S. candy whey exports grew 22% (+4,132 MT).

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The U.S. Dairy Export Council fosters collaborative business partnerships with processors, buying and selling firms and others to reinforce international demand for U.S. dairy merchandise and substances. USDEC is primarily supported by Dairy Administration Inc. by way of the dairy farmer checkoff. Learn how to republish this put up.  



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